10 of 15 indicators monitoring health hazards, exposures and impacts have reached record levels, according to the latest Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change report. These impacts disproportionately fall on the 745 million people who lack access to electricity and have contributed the least to climate change. Record fossil fuel subsidies, production, and increasing global energy demand are pushing emissions to levels that will further endanger human health.

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“The 2024 report reveals the most concerning findings yet in 8 years of monitoring” – 2024 Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change

The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change is produced each year since 2015 by a collaboration of 300 researchers and health professionals from UN agencies and global academic institutions. The central aim of the report is to evaluate the connections between climate change and health at global, regional, and national levels. The most recent report, published in October 2024, analyzes linkages between climate change and health across 56 indicators.

Key Climate Change and Health Indicators

Heat

Extreme heat is becoming more prevalent and dangerous to human health. Between 2019 and 2023, people were exposed to 46 additional days on average of health-threatening heat than would have been expected without climate change. The report defines “health-threatening” as temperatures above the 84th percentile of the 1986-2005 daily average.

Heat exposure is far more prevalent in developing countries, with many experiencing at least 100 or more days of health-threatening heat than without climate change.

Increased heat due to climate change is especially dangerous for older adults, who are more likely to have an underlying health condition and less able to protect themselves during a heat event. Heat-related deaths in adults older than 65 was 167% higher in 2023 than in 1990-1999 and there was a 106% increase in the average annual heat-related deaths in this age group between 1990-1999 and 2014-2023, according to the report.

Wildfires

The catastrophic, ongoing wildfires in the Los Angeles area have caused 24 deaths and destroyed more than 12,000 structures as of this writing. This is the latest example of an overall global increase in wildfire frequency and severity. The risk of wildfires and human exposure to very high fire danger increased in 124 countries between 2003-2007 and 2019-2023 due to higher temperatures and more frequent droughts.  

Wildfire smoke contains several pollutants including particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) that are a significant threat to human health, including exacerbating respiratory illnesses and reducing lung and cardiovascular function. Research has also found that even short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5 is associated with an increased risk of mortality.

Air pollution

Toxic air pollution is a global human health hazard. The burning of fossil fuels releases pollutants such as PM2.5 and contributes to related climate changes including drought and wildfire. Drier conditions increase the likelihood of sand and dust storms that contain the air pollutant PM10. 

Between 2018 and 2022, 3.8 billion people were exposed to unsafe concentrations of PM10, which was a 31% increase from 2003-07, the report found.

Exposure to fossil fuel derived PM2.5 contributed to 2.09 million of 6.4 million total deaths attributable to PM2.5 in 2021. Although fossil fuels accounted for over 30% of PM2.5 mortality, this actually reflects a reduction of 156,000 fossil fuel related pollution deaths since 2016. This is due to decreased coal-related pollution in high and very high human development index (HDI) countries, underlining the tangible health benefits from decarbonization.

Extreme weather accelerating global food insecurity

Extreme heat and drought are causing millions more people to experience food insecurity. Nearly 50% of the global land area was affected by one or more months of extreme drought in 2023. The reduction in crop yields, water, and disrupted supply chains contributed to 151 million more people experiencing food insecurity in 2022 due to climate change.

Infectious disease

Warming temperatures, extreme precipitation and flooding are creating more favorable conditions for disease-carrying insects worldwide.

Mosquito-borne diseases are responsible for more than one million deaths and 700 million infections per year. Warmer temperatures accelerate mosquito development and lengthen disease transmission seasons by a month or more. The climatic suitability for transmission of dengue fever by two species of mosquito, Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti – also known as Asian tiger mosquito and yellow fever mosquito – increased by 46.3% and 10.7%, respectively, between 1951-60 and 2014-23. An additional 17.1% of global land area became suitable for transmission of malaria between 1951-60 and 2014-23. 

More on the topic: What Are Zoonotic Diseases?

The Growing Carbon Footprint of Healthcare

A paradox of modern healthcare is that treatment of diseases, many of which are exacerbated by climate change, generates significant greenhouse gas emissions and contributes to climate change.

The global healthcare sector accounts for 4.6% of total emissions, according to the report. Emissions increased 36% between 2016 and 2021. Air pollution from healthcare emissions contributed to 4.6 million disability-adjusted life years lost in 2021.

Healthcare emissions are categorized across three scopes based on their source:

• Scope 1: direct emissions from healthcare facilities operations
• Scope 2: indirect emissions from purchased electricity, steam, cooling and heating
• Scope 3: emissions from the healthcare supply chain – production, transport, use and disposal of goods and services

The Lancet report found that there is an association between healthcare emissions and higher life expectancy up to 400 kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per capita. Additional emissions beyond this level are not linked to better health outcomes. Several very high HDI countries are over 1,000 kg CO2e, with the US leading industrialized countries at over 1,600 kg CO2e. This finding highlights that healthcare in high-emitting countries could decarbonize and still achieve high-quality care and outcomes.

UK National Health Service: A Global Model For Healthcare Decarbonization

The UK’s National Health Service (NHS) has initiated the most comprehensive national approach to healthcare decarbonization in the world. In 2022, it became the first national health system to embed a net zero commitment in legislation, with a roadmap for reaching this goal across its total carbon footprint by 2045.

Key rationales for the net zero target were the potential for diverse health benefits, improved air pollution in vulnerable and marginalized communities, and reduced environmental health inequities that disproportionately impact minority ethnic groups.

Emission reduction strategies are being deployed across all three emission scopes. Examples include improving NHS facility energy efficiency, installation of renewable energy infrastructure, facilitating reduced staff and patient travel, reducing single-use plastics, devices and disposable products, incentivizing supplier decarbonization and shifting to low carbon intensity anaesthetic gases and inhalers.

Decarbonizing transportation is another key focus. The NHS is in the process of transitioning its fleet of 20,000 vehicles to zero emission models. This applies to all new vehicles starting in 2027, ambulances in 2030 with full fleet transition by 2040. 

The NHS estimates these strategies will yield substantial health benefits: 5,770 lives saved per year from reductions in air pollution and 38,400 lives saved per year from increased levels of physical activity by 2040.

Outlook

The world has a 99.7% probability of exceeding the 1.5C Paris Agreement limit, and global warming could reach 3.1C by 2100. This is due to insufficient decarbonization commitments from nearly all high emitting countries, growing energy demand and record fossil fuel subsidies. The anticipated withdrawal of the US from the Paris Climate Agreement under the incoming Trump Administration may further slow global momentum on climate change.

Global engagement around climate change and health may also be falling overall. The Lancet report highlighted that the number of governments mentioning climate and health in their annual UN General Debate fell from 50% in 2022 to 35% in 2023. Additionally, only 47% of the 58 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted in 2023 referred to health. NDCs are national climate actions plans each signatory to the Paris Agreement is required to submit regularly.

Health impacts and death from climate change are likely to continue escalating if the world maintains a high emission and warming trajectory. A November 2024 study projected that climate change and air pollution could contribute to 30 million deaths annually by 2100. 

The health impacts of climate change are projected to disproportionately impact poor countries with the smallest carbon footprints. As Our World in Data’s Hannah Ritchie puts it, “this is the harsh inequality of climate change.” 

You might also like: Why We Should Care About Environmental Health

The post New Report Highlights Detrimental Impact of Climate Change on Human Health appeared first on Earth.Org.

Major shifts have been observed in species distribution, range boundaries, migration patterns, and phenology as a consequence of climate change. These changes have diverse implications for biodiversity and humanity.

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Climate change and other human-driven environmental impacts are altering ecosystems and affecting the lives of millions of plant and animal species.

The Earth has warmed 1.3C since 1850, primarily due to human-generated greenhouse gas emissions. The temperature increase has contributed to accelerating climate effects including drought, heat, sea level rise and wildfires.

Drought

Nearly 25% of the global population experienced drought conditions in 2022 and 2023. The latter was also the driest year in three decades for the world’s rivers. Drought is projected to become more frequent in the future, with the severity ranging from 33% to 62% of global land area under a low or high emission scenario.

Heat

The ten hottest years on record all occurred in the last decade, with 2024 topping the ranking. Climate change contributed to 41 additional days of extreme heat in 2024. Extreme heat increases ecosystem vulnerability, wildfire and drought risk, fuels more powerful hurricanes and contributes to sea level rise.

Sea level rise

Global sea level has risen 8-9 inches (20.3-22.9cm) since 1880 and reached an all-time high of 10.14 centimeters above 1993 levels (first year of satellite record) in 2023. Sea level rise is driven primarily by melting of the earth’s mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets. Glacial, arctic and Antarctic melting has accelerated each decade.

Sea level rise is projected to reach 1 foot (30.5cm) above 2000 levels by 2100 in the most optimistic scenario aligned with the Paris Climate Agreement target of 1.5C. The current trajectory of 3.1C of warming by 2100 means sea level rise may be closer to the high emission scenario of 6 feet or higher by 2100.

Wildfires

Wildfires are becoming more frequent, intense and widespread. Between 2001 and 2023, the area burned by fires increased by 5.4% per year, resulting in 6 million more hectares burned annually compared to 2001. The global fire season got 18.7% longer from 1979 to 2013. Hotter, drier conditions are contributing to more severe fires that release 50% more carbon per unit burned area than in the early 2000s.

How Are Human Activities Impacting Ecosystems?

Humans are altering ecosystems in ways that dramatically reduce the habitat and natural resources available to other species and contribute to climate change. 

Deforestation and land conversion for development and agriculture, for example, is removing over 18 million acres of forest habitat per year.

Meanwhile, global demand for water has contributed to the loss of 30% of freshwater ecosystems including rivers, lakes and wetlands, which together provide habitat for 10% of all species.

Widespread use of pesticides to eliminate insects and boost agricultural productivity can be toxic to other organisms and contaminate freshwater sources. A 2022 study of 92 active ingredients in pesticides and data mapping agricultural use in the US estimated that pesticide use on 33% of agricultural land in the US was at a level high enough to be considered a risk to ecosystems. Global pesticide use has grown by about 11% per year since the 1950s and totals over 3 billion kilograms annually.

Observed Changes in Plant and Animal Species

Distribution and migration

Plants and animals in terrestrial ecosystems are moving to cooler environments at higher latitudes in response to warming. Melting of the polar ice sheets has enabled the movement of marine species into new areas.

Declining sea ice is contracting the habitat ranges for animals that have successfully adapted to previous glacial retreat. The Adelie penguin is dependent on ice throughout its life cycle. The sea-ice season in the Arctic and Antarctic shortened between 1979 and 2010 due to rising temperatures. Penguins are shifting their breeding grounds further south and must travel further for food and breeding. Population declines of over 40% have been observed in the eastern Antarctic Adelie penguin populations.

Ocean warming and falling water acidity are causing corals to expel the symbiotic algae from their tissues resulting in a loss of color known as coral bleaching. Coral reefs are considered  keystone species in that they are critical for ecosystem balance and shelter 25% of all marine species. Coral reef systems have declined 14% since 2009 and a 2024 analysis indicated that 44% of the remaining 892 warm-water coral reef species are at risk of extinction due to projected future warming and other threats from human activities.

Phenology

Phenology refers to seasonal and cyclic expression in plant and animal species. The timing of these lifecycle events is influenced by changes in climate and weather patterns. Climate change is altering phenological processes, including flowering and emergence of larval insects such as caterpillars, with potential for global impacts.

Research supports an association between warming and early flowering. A 2022 study of first flowering dates of 406 plant species from before and after 1986 found an average shift of 26 days earlier in the year. This creates risk for temporal mismatch between earlier flowering plants and insect pollinators that generally adjust less quickly to warming. Temporal mismatch could have significant consequences for food systems as about 35% of global food crops depend on pollination to reproduce. Bee populations worldwide have already declined in recent decades due to habitat loss, pesticide use and air pollution.

You might also like: How Does Climate Change Affect Pollinators?

Range and population size

Warming temperatures favoring disease-carrying insects is a threat to public health worldwide.

Ticks are responsible for 95% of annual vector-borne diseases in the US, including Lyme disease and Rocky Mountain spotted fever. Historically, their range has been limited to the Northeast, Gulf Coast and Upper Midwest. However, warming has enabled expansion into southern Canada and the western US. Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the US, with a nearly 25 times increase of annually reported cases since 1982.

Climate change is also creating favorable conditions for mosquitos – the deadliest creature on Earth – to breed. Mosquito-borne diseases are responsible for more than one million deaths and 700 million infections per year. Warmer temperatures accelerate mosquito development and lengthen disease transmission seasons by a month or more. Extreme precipitation and flooding have increased in frequency and intensity since the 1950s and leave additional standing water ideal for mosquito breeding.

How Can Humans Support Species Adaptation to Climate Change?

The greenhouse gas emissions emitted by human activities have ensured that changes to species and ecosystems will continue into the distant future. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), climate change is already directly impacting at least 10,967 species on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. 

The Earth is on pace for 3.1C of warming. If nothing is done, one-third of species worldwide could face extinction by the end of the century.

Two key strategies are assisted migration and protected areas.

Assisted migration

Assisted migration involves the relocation of plants or animals to more suitable habitats. The US Endangered Species Act was updated in 2023 to allow for this intervention as it was previously thought moving species was too potentially destructive to the destination habitat. However, the pace of climate change is exceeding species capacity to successfully adapt naturally.

Climate scientists with the US Forest Service are utilizing assisted migration to test replacement tree species for an area in Minnesota formerly containing ash trees that were destroyed by the emerald ash borer, a non-native invasive insect species. The test trees include species resilient to the emerald ash borer and those accustomed to warmer environments.

Assisted migration is also being considered by wildlife officials in Florida to save a dwindling population of deer. The key deer are native to the Florida Keys and their habitat is threatened by sea level rise and saltwater intrusion. Relocation to mainland Florida may be the last remaining option to save the 1,000 remaining in the wild.

Protected areas

Protected areas have long been utilized to preserve locations with cultural or natural values from human presence and exploitation. Considered the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation by the Convention on Biological Diversity, there are around 130,000 protected areas covering 13% of terrestrial surfaces and 6% of marine areas.In 2022, the UN Convention on Biological Diversity adopted the goal of achieving protection of at least 30% of global lands, inland waters, coastal areas and oceans by 2030. Studies have shown that when effectively managed, protected areas are effective at reducing habitat loss, preserving biodiversity and improving species conservation compared to those with no protections. Protected areas that limit deforestation and land clearing also contribute far less carbon emissions than unprotected forests.

The post How Are Plants and Animals Responding to Climate Change? appeared first on Earth.Org.

Wood stoves are a major source of air pollution during cold weather months. The smoke contains pollutants including particulate matter, benzene and formaldehyde that are hazardous to human health. Wood burning also emits more carbon dioxide than coal, oil or gas and is considered the least climate-friendly heating option. The UK, the European Union and US are each taking action to reduce pollution from wood burning stoves and transition to cleaner options.

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In the US, just under 2% of households nationwide use wood as their primary heating source. However, in some low-income counties such as Arizona’s Apache County, some 60% of households still rely on wood for heating.

Wood stoves are most prevalent in the heavily forested northern regions with Vermont, Wisconsin and Minnesota, the top three states for per capita wood stove emissions.  Northwestern states including Oregon, Idaho and Washington are also in the top 10.

Wood stoves are more common in the UK and European Union, with some 10% of households relying on them. The rate is far higher in Norway, Finland, Switzerland, Poland and other countries with cold winters and abundant woodlands.

Steep increases in energy prices after the start of the Ukraine war in 2022 have led households across Europe to adopt wood as a cost saving measure. Sales of wood burning stoves rose 66% between 2021 and 2023 in the UK and demand for firewood increased 96% between 2022 and 2023 in Germany.

The Carbon Footprint of Wood Stoves

Nearly 50% of timber harvested worldwide is used as fuel and wood burning. The process releases more carbon dioxide, methane, black carbon and nitrous oxide than coal, oil and natural gas do, though emissions are also released when trees are harvested. 

Black carbon contributes to global warming and absorbs solar rays after drifting back to the ground. This can accelerate ice melting and sea level rise in regions such as the Arctic, which is already warming at nearly four times the global average rate.   

Each harvest also represents a missed opportunity for significant carbon sequestration since mature forests have a far greater capacity to absorb carbon dioxide than smaller, immature trees cultivated for harvest within 40 years or less, which never attain full maturity.

Global timber sequestration has declined overall with intensive deforestation. 

Over 10 million hectares of primary forest have been removed primarily for palm oil cultivation in Indonesia and the clearing of one-fifth of the total forest cover in the Amazon has turned the region from the world’s largest carbon sink to a carbon emitter. Emissions from harvesting timber combined with burning results in a net global warming potential that exceeds other fuel sources.

Health Impacts of Wood Smoke

Wood smoke is a significant contributor of the toxic air pollutants particulate matter, benzene, formaldehyde, acrolein and hydrocarbon. Wood burning is the second-largest emitter of wintertime particulate matter (PM2.5), contributing five times more than petroleum refineries, cement manufacturers and pulp and paper plants combined. PM2.5 is the most damaging to human health as it is small enough, at less than 10 micrometers in diameter, to be inhaled and may enter the bloodstream.

Exposure to PM2.5 has been linked with aggravated asthma symptoms, irregular heartbeat, reduced lung function and even premature death in those with existing heart or lung disease. Over 40,000 early deaths per year are attributed to wood burning in Europe and 10,000 annually in the US.

Wood stoves are also a safety risk if not properly used and maintained. Over 14% of house fires in the US are caused by poorly maintained heating equipment and chimneys. Fires resulted in 480 deaths, 1,370 injuries and over US$1 billion in direct property damage between 2016 and 2020, mostly during cold weather months.

Policies and Incentives to Reduce Wood Stove Pollution

The UK, EU and United States have all taken measures to lower the carbon footprint and amount of pollution emitted by wood burning stoves.

Since 2022, all wood stoves sold in the UK and EU must be certified to emit a maximum 375g of PM2.5 for every gigajoule (GJ) of energy produced, while nordic countries have adopted a higher 150g of PM2.5 per GJ standard. This is a significant improvement from older wood stoves that commonly emit over 1,000g of PM2.5 per GJ. 

However, these standards have also drawn criticism as too weak given that other heat sources including oil, gas, electric and heat pumps emit less than 10g of PM2.5 per GJ.

The EU has also taken steps to disincentivize timber harvesting for fuel. In 2022, the European Parliament voted to phase out tax breaks and financial incentives for wood fuel producers. Tiemo Woelken, a German MEP, summarized the case for ending the incentives: “The writing is on the wall: Cutting down forests for energy use is neither sustainable, nor does it help with our energy independence.”

In the US, wood stove emission standards have been set by the Environmental Protection Agency since 1988. The initial standards of 7.5g/hr of PM2.5 (catalytic stove type) and 4.5g/hr of PM2.5(non-catalytic stove type) did not change between 1988 and 2014. In 2020, the EPA completed a major update that strengthened the standard to 2.5 g/hr of PM2.5 for all wood stoves sold in the country. The agency’s estimation suggested that implementing stricter standards could lead to a 70% reduction in stove emissions. This change is projected to yield between $74 and $165 in savings from avoided healthcare expenses and other societal costs for every dollar invested in compliance.

Nonetheless, similar to the European Union, the revised EPA benchmarks and certification procedures have faced scrutiny for their perceived weakness and ineffectiveness. In a damning report released in 2023, the EPA’s Office of Inspector General criticized the wood stove performance standards as “flawed,” highlighted certification processes lacking clarity and affording excessive flexibility, ultimately leading to the certification of wood heaters for sale that emit excessive levels of particulate-matter pollution. 10 states have sued the EPA, urging the agency to address certification issues and further strengthen the emission standards.

The Inflation Reduction Act passed in 2022 by the Biden Administration allocates over $360 billion in funding for clean energy and climate programs. This includes $8.8 million granted to the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management to gather wood stove emissions data that will inform development of a performance ranking for consumers and the next EPA emissions standard for wood stoves.

Government subsidies directly supporting wood stove upgrades have also been implemented. US homeowners can qualify for a tax credit worth 30% of the cost and up to $2,000 per year for upgrading to a new high-efficiency wood burning stove and may also be eligible for an additional $8,000 rebate for reducing household energy use.

The post Wood Stoves and Air Pollution: What’s the Link? appeared first on Earth.Org.

Multiple recent days with extreme air pollution in New Delhi more than 50 times higher than the World Health Organization standard highlighted the risks to public health of continued reliance on fossil fuels. Rapidly urbanizing countries are struggling to meet the growing demand for energy while reducing their carbon footprint and preserving public health. Successful climate and clean air initiatives in cities such as Bogota and Warsaw provide hope for areas with a history of chronic pollution and poor air quality.

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“Every year more cars, more buildings, more rubbish, more factories, filling the air with filth – is that worth more than our lives?” – Hartosh Singh, fruit vendor in Delhi during November 2024 extreme air pollution event.

New Delhi is a densely populated, growing city of 33 million that has long had among the worst chronic air pollution of any urban area in the world. 

Agricultural burning of crop residue in northern India during fall and winter generates additional pollution that when combined with emissions in dense urban areas such as Delhi can result in extreme poor air quality events that endanger public health. 

For several days between November 18 and November 26, 2024, the Air Quality Index in the city soared above 1,000, a level considered hazardous to all residents and far beyond the World Health Organization recommended safe limit of 50µg/m3. Pollution at this scale has forced local authorities to close schools, pause construction and ban diesel and other large trucks from entering the city, disrupting day-to-day life for millions of people.

This event is yet another reminder of a major issue affecting many rapidly industrializing and urbanizing developing countries worldwide, which have depended on fossil fuels such as coal to power economic growth. These nations are now struggling with the associated chronic public health outcomes and how to transition to cleaner energy sources.

Drivers of Urban Air Pollution

Economic growth powered by fossil fuels

Historically, developing countries have relied on coal, diesel and natural gas to power industrialization, expand public transportation modes and networks, meet the housing, cooking, heating and cooling needs of a rapidly growing population. 

Even with the rapid growth of renewable energy development in recent years, the global economy is still largely dependent on fossil fuels. 

Global carbon dioxide emissions reached an all-time high in 2023, and expanded production plans from 114 largest oil and gas companies are set to produce emissions sufficient to surpass the 1.5C warming threshold by 189% in 2040.

Weak or nonexistent air pollution monitoring and regulation

A global assessment of air pollution legislation completed by the United Nations Environment Programme found that definition and adoption of air quality standards varied widely among the 194 countries analyzed, owing to a lack of global standards. 

Only half of these countries’ national air quality programs have an explicit focus on public health. 43% do not define air pollution, while 65% of them have no legally mandated ambient air quality standards. 55% of the countries with no legal air quality standard mandate have no air quality standards at all.

Even in countries that have air quality standards, these can permit a level of pollution that is hazardous to public health. For example, researchers estimated that the Indian air quality standard for particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) of 40µg/m3, which far exceeds the 5µg/m3 level considered safe by the United Nations, contributes to nearly 33,000 excess deaths per year across the country.

Establishing air pollution standards may also be limited due to insufficient air quality monitoring stations and tracking data. 

Significant disparities in air quality monitoring exist between industrialized countries in Europe and North America and those in Africa. Large cities in the western world average one air quality monitor per 100,000-600,000 residents compared with just one monitor per 4.5 million residents across urban areas in Africa. Only 24 of 54 African countries had sufficient monitoring data to be included in the 2024 IQAir Air Pollution Report. 

Countries with limited air quality monitoring activities and capacity may also lack consistent funding for equipment, maintenance, data management systems and trained staff, and consistent access to electricity.

Agriculture

Seasonal farming practices including crop residue burning account for significant air pollution in India and other developing countries. 

Each fall, farmers use burning to clear their fields of harvest residue and prepare for the winter planting season.

The practice has increased by 21% with the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act in 2005. Farmers began opting for mechanized harvesting, resulting in more residue left on the fields for clearance, in response to labor market shifts brought about by the government plan.

Public Health Burden of Air Pollution

Health impacts associated with climate change are at their worst level since monitoring and reporting began in 2015, according to the 2024 Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change report.

10 of 15 indicators for climate change-related health exposures, hazards and impacts, including extreme heat, precipitation, extreme weather events, infectious diseases, all reached new highs. 

Exposure to and impacts from air pollution and poor air quality have been especially severe. The report identified a 31% increase in the number of people exposed to high particulate matter concentrations between 2003 and 2018. Exposure to air pollution increases the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular disease, cancer and diabetes. 

Some 8.4 million deaths were attributable to air pollution in 2021, making it the second leading risk factor for death after high blood pressure and before tobacco.

The impacts are disproportionately felt in developing countries, which have far higher mortality rates. Meanwhile, air pollution and mortality have dramatically improved in wealthy, western countries including the UK, US and western European Union members, due in part to transition from coal to cleaner energy sources.

Barriers to the Energy Transition

Conflicting priorities

Without adequate financial support from rich nations, developing countries that are experiencing rapid population growth, industrialization and increased energy demand may be forced to continue burning fossil fuels, especially coal, to support continued economic growth. 

Coal still contributes by far the most carbon dioxide emissions of any fuel source in the world and remains dominant in Asia even as the US, while EU states and the UK have largely transitioned to oil, natural gas and renewable energy sources. Coal subsidies, production and imports in India reached a record high in the first 6 months of 2024 due to record energy demand during the many extreme heat events the nation witnessed this summer.

Insufficient global climate financing available to support clean energy transition

The recent UN climate summit COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, yielded a commitment from wealthy countries to contribute a minimum of $300 billion per year by 2035 to help developing countries transition to clean energy, prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change. 

While this new agreement tripled the previous yearly commitment of $100 billion, it is far below the $1.3 trillion per year experts say is needed by low-income countries. 

Beyond decarbonization, only 0.5% of climate funding has been allocated to projects that protect or improve human health from climate hazards such as pollution and poor air quality. 

How These Two Cities Are Addressing Air Pollution and Climate Change

Even with an overall global rise in emissions and surging demand for energy, cities around the world are taking action to decrease urban pollution and improve public health.

Transportation decarbonization in Bogotá, Colombia

In 2021, Bogotá, the capital of Colombia, launched the “United Pact for a New Air” with the goal of reducing concentrations of particulate matter 2.5 by 16% by the decade’s end. The initiative encompasses several decarbonization strategies focused on the transportation sector, which accounts for 70% of air pollution in the city. 

Bogotá has committed to developing a fully electric rail system, transitioning to no and low emissions buses, encouraging teleworking wherever possible, expanding the existing bicycle path network and restricting emissions from trucks and other heavy emitters.

Air quality monitoring in Warsaw, Poland

Poland, which generates over 70% of electricity from coal (as compared to 16% for the entire EU), has some of the worst air pollution in Europe. 3,000 of the over 47,000 air pollution-associated deaths in the EU in 2021 occurred in its capital Warsaw, where air quality is on average three times the limit recommended by the WHO. 

Launched in 2022, the Breathe Warsaw initiative supported development of a network of 165 air quality sensors, the largest in Europe. These stations will provide data for a comprehensive air quality database to inform government air quality planning.

Future Population Growth and Urbanization Increase Urgency for Action

The global population is projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, with 68% of the population living in urban areas. This, combined with urbanization, is anticipated to add 2.5 billion urban residents and over 40 “supercities” of more than 10 million residents worldwide. New Delhi is set to become the most populous city in the world at around 43 million residents by 2030. 

Without aggressive global action to address climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, the health of hundreds of millions of people is at stake.

A report from the World Economic Forum examined how climate change will impact health and the global economy based on the International Panel on Climate Change’s “most likely” scenario of 2.7C temperature rise over pre-industrial levels by 2100. It concluded that climate change could cause an additional 14.5 million deaths per year from flooding, extreme heat, and air pollution. The latter is projected to be the largest contributor at almost 9 million additional deaths per year. Total economic losses may reach $12.5 trillion, and the global healthcare system is estimated to incur $1.1 trillion in additional costs due to climate change by mid-century.

Fortunately, these are only projections, and there is still time to invest the resources necessary to avoid the worst economic and public health outcomes. Studies have demonstrated that the benefits of investing in climate action and air pollution reduction now can yield results that dramatically outweigh the upfront costs. For example, the US Clean Air Act is estimated to have returned an economic benefit of $30 for every dollar invested in air pollution control through increased economic productivity, reduced healthcare costs and chronic disease and longer life spans. 

Investing in climate change mitigation and climate resilience also yields significant savings, with the US Chamber of Commerce finding that each dollar invested in resilience and disaster preparedness saved $13 in economic impact, damage and cleanup costs after an extreme weather event.

Featured image: Adeel Anwer/Flickr.

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Democrat-led state commitments to climate action provide a glimmer of hope in a second Trump Administration. Voters in Washington State rejected a ballot initiative to repeal the state cap-and-invest program modeled after the program in California. Meanwhile, New York is in the process of developing their own cap-and-invest program. These state actions will be critical for countering a comprehensive rollback of national climate policy, emission regulations, environmental protections in favor of accelerated fossil fuel development expected in a second Trump term.

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Washington State preserved its cap-and-invest program that was established in 2021 through passage of the Climate Commitment Act as a primary strategy for achieving the state’s emission reduction goals of 45% below 1990 levels by 2030 and 95% below 1990 levels by 2050. 

This market-based system requires emitters, including utilities, fuel suppliers, waste-to-energy facilities and others, to purchase credits equal to their greenhouse gas emissions in quarterly auctions. The number of credits available is reduced over time to incentivize carbon emission reduction and ensure that the state reaches its targets.

Held in 2023, the first Climate Commitment Act auction generated $3.2 billion in revenue, supporting over 100 climate mitigation and adaptation projects. These included free public transit for youth under 18, conversion of ferries to hybrid-electric, electric vehicle charging infrastructure, building decarbonization, large-scale solar installations, energy vouchers for low-income customers, support for diverse adaptation projects across Tribal resilience, riparian protection and wildfire restoration and prevention. A report by the Washington State Department of Ecology estimated the total emission reduction across all funded programs equivalent to 45,000 cars driven for one year.

The future of the Climate Commitment Act was threatened by ballot Initiative 2117. This would have repealed the law, cap-and-invest system and prohibited the Washington State Legislature from ever implementing another carbon credit program. Initiative 2117 was funded by one wealthy hedge fund manager who blamed the cap-and-invest program for imposing additional costs on fossil fuel suppliers that contributed to high gas prices relative to other states.

 A coalition of nearly 600 members including unions, community groups, farmers, doctors, firefighters, faith leaders, healthcare organizations, businesses and tribes aided by hundreds of volunteers launched an aggressive state-wide campaign urging voters to “vote no” on Initiative 2117, highlighting the diverse programs funded and benefits already provided by the Climate Commitment Act to state residents and impact on programs, services and prospects for climate action if passed. This effort was successful as polling conducted in early spring 2024 indicated support for the measure and months of voter outreach and messaging resulted in a clear rejection of Initiative 2117 with 62% rejecting the initiative.

Support for the Climate Commitment Act was broadly distributed across progressive urban counties such as King that includes the City of Seattle and deeply conservative rural counties in central and eastern Washington. Outgoing Washington State Governor Jay Inslee, who has been a fierce champion of climate action through three four-year terms, celebrated the vote: “Washingtonians said loud and clear that they value clean air and clean water – and they don’t want to go backwards. This is a victory for clean air, clean energy jobs and a stronger economy in the Evergreen State,” Inslee said.

Momentum for Climate Policy in Other Blue States

A successful effort to repeal the Climate Commitment Act in Washington State may have inspired similar ballot initiatives in other states that have implemented cap-and-invest or other major policies to address climate change. 

This includes California, the first state to implement an economy-wide cap-and-invest program – the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) – a cooperative effort of 11 Eastern states to cap and reduce power sector carbon dioxide emissions; New York, which is both a member of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and currently developing an economy-wide cap-and-invest program; and Oregon, which is re-establishing a narrower program resembling cap-and-trade but does include carbon allowance trading via auction.

California – Pioneer for State Climate Action

The “golden” state is home to nearly 39 million people who contribute to the fifth-largest economy in the world. California is second to Texas in total greenhouse gas emissions generated per year. However, on a per capita basis, California ranks as third-lowest in the US in terms of metric tons per person. This is due in part to the state’s ambitious carbon reduction goals, policies and public investments in clean energy and infrastructure.

A major component of California’s emission reduction strategy is its Cap-and-Trade Program, implemented in 2013. The program covers 80% of total state greenhouse gas emissions, with a cap on emissions that has declined 2-3% per year since 2014. The 450 entities covered by the law, including fuel suppliers and refiners, electrical utilities, chemical producers, and industrial manufacturers, must purchase allowances to cover their emissions in state-administered auctions, with an increasing annual minimum allowance price to incentivize participants to reduce their emissions.

The Cap-and-Trade carbon allowance auctions have generated $11 billion for climate programs since 2014. These funds have supported hundreds of thousands of new projects across low carbon transportation, wildfire prevention, renewable energy, emergency preparedness, community air protection, climate adaptation and other priority areas. Equity and environmental justice are prioritized as by law, a minimum of 35% of auction proceeds must directly benefit disadvantaged and low-income communities and households at greater risk to be impacted by climate change. To-date, 76% of program funding has been allocated to projects benefiting these priority populations.

Over 10 years projects funded by the California Cap-and-Trade program have achieved impressive benefits for the economy, public health, environment as well as climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. The program is estimated to have reduced greenhouse gas emissions by a total of 109.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents and reduced year-on-year emissions from most sectors with over 105,000 less tons of pollutants in the air. Improved air quality is credited with a range of public health benefits, including over 1,000 avoided premature deaths, hundreds of avoided hospitalizations and ER visits for respiratory illness and asthma. 

Cap-and-Trade funded projects have created 29,000 jobs and invested heavily in workforce development for priority populations in fields such as electric public transportation, renewable energy and environmental restoration. The program has also supported strategies to combat the cost-of-living and housing crisis in California – which has consistently ranked as one of the most expensive states – through rebates and incentives for weatherization, heating and cooling upgrades, electric vehicle subsidies and energy efficient low-income housing construction.

You might also like: Leading the Way: California’s Trailblazing Efforts to Fight Climate Change

National Climate Action Again Under Threat from Trump

Trump won by 86 electoral votes and was the first Republican to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004. He will assume office with Republican majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives, all but ensuring he will have few obstacles to rolling back federal climate commitments, policies, programs and regulations.

In his first term, Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Agreement, appointed a former fossil fuel lobbyist to head the EPA, and filled staff positions and advisory committees at EPA and Interior responsible for informing policy development with former fossil fuel industry representatives. 

His administration initiated the largest reduction of protected lands in US history, shrinking national monuments to allow for expanded oil and gas drilling. This included a 51% reduction to Grand Staircase-Escalante and 85% cut to Bears Ears National Monuments in Utah and a recommendation that a significant portion of the 9.37-million-acre Tongass National Forest in Alaska be opened for logging.

The Trump Administration also proposed broad revisions to the Endangered Species Act to reduce protections for species classified as “threatened” and allow for consideration of economic factors (i.e. potential for fossil fuel development in their habitat) in determining if a species is to be listed as “endangered”. 

Major Obama era emission reduction policies were significantly weakened, including removing greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets from the Clean Power Plan and reducing vehicle fuel efficiency standard increases from 5% to 1.5% per year.

President-elect Trump has committed to again shifting the US away from addressing climate change in his second term. This includes a second withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, slashing regulations aimed at reducing carbon emissions, approving new fossil fuel pipelines, reopening offshore drilling and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas exploration, restricting or redirecting billions in funding for climate programs available through the Inflation Reduction Act. His appointments of two loyalists in former New York Representative Lee Zeldin to head the Environmental Protection Agency and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum to lead both the Interior Department and a newly formed National Energy Council further reinforces a commitment to prioritizing deregulation and fossil fuel development.

More on the topic: Environmentalists Weigh In on Trump Cabinet Picks

Global Progress on Climate in Limbo

The anticipated withdrawal of the US from the Paris Climate Agreement will worsen already slowing global momentum. An updated projection of future warming released ahead of the COP29 Climate Change Conference indicated that due to weak emission reduction targets, inadequate implementation of climate reduction policies and all-time high fossil fuel subsidies driving increasing emissions the world has already warmed 1.3C. There is now almost no path to limit warming below the 1.5C Paris target, with warming now on track to reach up to 3.1C by 2100.

Despite an unprecedented commitment to address climate change by the Biden Administration and passage of the Inflation Reduction Act containing over $350 billion in funding for emission reduction strategies, the country is falling short of the progress necessary to meet its domestic goals and be aligned with a global path to 1.5C warming or under. The anticipated comprehensive rollback of climate policies, regulations, programs and further acceleration of fossil fuel development under a second Trump Administration may add .04 of warming by 2100, but there is a risk the impact could be far greater if other high-emitting countries follow the US and exit the Paris Climate Agreement, weaken their emission reduction targets, or increase fossil fuel development.

Pressure on Blue States to Maintain Climate Change Progress

Governors from progressive states including California, Washington, Illinois and New York are actively preparing to counter Trump Administration policies on climate change and the environment. 

California and Washington State under Attorney General and newly elected Governor Bob Ferguson were especially aggressive during the first Trump Administration, each filing dozens of successful lawsuits contesting weakening of environmental regulations to favor fossil fuel extraction. California Governor Gavin Newsom called a special session of the state legislature to plan for battling Trump policies. It may include canceling the EPA waiver that allows California to establish its own vehicle emission standards, which are stricter than the national standard set by the EPA and have been adopted by 18 other states. 

In addition to planning for legal action, democratic leaders are accelerating climate action. Just days after the presidential election, New York Governor Kathy Hochul abruptly resurrected a congestion pricing plan for New York City that charges drivers $9 during peak hours and aims to reduce vehicle congestion and emissions, improve air quality and raise funds for public transportation.  

The post These US States Are Poised to Lead the Way on Climate During Second Trump Term appeared first on Earth.Org.