2024 ‘Effectively Certain’ to Be Hottest on Record After Second-Warmest November Globally, European Scientists Say

This year is also set to be the first year above 1.5C, the critical temperature threshold set in the Paris Agreement.

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2024 is set to be the hottest year ever recorded after temperatures remained abnormally high globally last month, European scientists said on Monday.

The average temperature globally in November was 14.10C, 0.73C above the 1991-2020 average for the month, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

“At this point, it is effectively certain that 2024 is going to be the warmest year on record,” the EU-funded agency said in its monthly temperature bulletin as it confirmed last month to be the second-warmest November on its ERA5 dataset.

Paris Target At Risk

Last month’s global-average surface air temperature was also 1.62C above the pre-industrial level, marking the 16th month in a 17-month period that the average temperature exceeded the Paris Agreement‘s 1.5C limit on the ERA5 dataset.

This effectively makes 2024 the first fiscal year above 1.5C, said Samantha Burgess, C3S’s Deputy Director.

World leaders at the 2015 COP21 climate summit agreed to keep global warming to below 1.5C or “well below 2C” above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Beyond this limit, experts warn that critical tipping points will be breached, leading to devastating and potentially irreversible consequences for several vital Earth systems that sustain a hospitable planet.

While the recent heat streak does not signal a permanent breach of the Paris goal, which scientists say is measured over decades, it makes “ambitious climate action … more urgent than ever,” said Burgess.

Warm Oceans

The world’s oceans have also been abnormally warm for more than a year in response to climate change and the concurrent greenhouse warming.

Oceans are the world’s largest carbon sink – absorbing more than 90% of excess heat created through human-made greenhouse gasses and around 25% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, resulting in ocean warming.

A 2019 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) revealed that ocean warming events such as marine heatwaves are likely to increase as the climate crisis deteriorates, putting a greater strain on marine ecosystems such as corals, leading to ocean acidification and sea level rise, and altering ocean currents, resulting in massive die-offs of marine species, and dead zones due to oxygen depletion. 

The world’s corals are currently undergoing a mass coral bleaching event in response to warmer oceans. The event is the largest ever recorded, affecting dozens of countries worldwide.

Coral bleaching occurs as a heat stress response from rising ocean temperatures, which drives algae away from coral reefs, causing reefs to lose their vibrant colours. While a bleaching event is not directly linked to corals’ death, more frequent and intense heat stresses make corals more vulnerable to diseases, slowing down their recovery and limiting their ability to spawn.

“As the world’s oceans continue to warm, coral bleaching is becoming more frequent and severe,” NOAA Coral Reef Watch Coordinator Derek Manzello said in April. “When these events are sufficiently severe or prolonged, they can cause coral mortality, which can negatively impact the goods and services coral reefs provide that people depend on for their livelihoods.”

Ocean warming is also linked to extreme weather events.

A study published last month by non-profit Climate Central concluded that higher-than-usual ocean temperatures boosted the intensity of all eleven hurricanes occurring in the Atlantic between June and November this year. Several of the typhoons that formed in the northwestern Pacific Ocean this year were largely attributed to the same phenomenon. 

Recent deadly floods in central Europe and Spain were also fuelled by excessive heat in the Mediterranean and Black Seas and in the tropical Atlantic ocean, respectively.

More on the topic: What Are Tropical Cyclones? Hurricanes and Typhoons, And Their Link to Climate Change, Explained

Fossil Fuels

The burning of coal, natural gas, and oil for electricity and heat is the single-largest source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These are the primary drivers of global warming as they trap heat in the atmosphere and raising Earth’s surface temperature. So far, the world has warmed by 1.2C compared to pre-industrial times.

Global fossil fuel consumption has more than doubled in the last 50 years, as countries around the world aim to improve their standards of living and economic output. In 2023, all three of the most potent GHGs – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide – reached record highs.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has urged countries to halt new gas and oil field projects, arguing that this is the only way to keep the 1.5C-compatible net-zero emissions scenario alive.