Record-Breaking Summer Signals 2024 Could Be Hottest Year Ever, European Scientists Say

The planet just endured its hottest ever summer, scientists said after confirming that August was the “joint-warmest” on record together with August 2023.

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This year is well on track to be the hottest on record after a record-breaking summer and the highest year-to-date global average temperature, European scientists confirmed on Friday.

The global-average temperature between June and August was the highest in the Copernicus Climate Change Service’s (C3S) ERA5 dataset at 0.69C above the 1991-2020 average for the same period and 0.03C higher than the previous record set last year.

According to C3S, a service operated by the EU’s Copernicus Earth observation programme, July was the second-hottest on record, just 0.04C shy than the average temperature in July 2023. However, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) later found it to be the hottest on record.

July also saw two back-to-back record-breaking daily temperatures.

“While the temperature on 21 July 2024 (17.09ºC) was almost indistinguishable from the previous record of 17.08ºC reached on 6 July 2023, the difference between these and the new record temperature (17.15°C) reached on 22 July is larger than typical differences in day-to-day variations among alternative datasets,” the weather agency said. All ten of the highest global average temperature days have occurred this decade, it added.

“During the past three months of 2024, the globe has experienced the hottest June and August, the hottest day on record, and the hottest boreal summer on record,” said Samantha Burgess, C3S’s Deputy Director. “This string of record temperatures is increasing the likelihood of 2024 being the hottest year on record.”

Already in July, scientists said that it was “increasingly likely” that 2024 would be the warmest year yet, beating 2023. According to Carbon Brief, there is a 95% likelihood that this will happen.

Between January and August, the global-average temperature anomaly was 0.70C above the 1991-2020 average, 0.23C warmer than the previous highest anomaly recorded in 2023. For 2024 not to be warmer than 2023, the anomaly for the remaining months of the year would need to decrease by at least 0.30C – a highly unlikely scenario, said C3S.

Rising temperatures are leading to significant consequences for the planet, including more frequent and severe weather events such as heatwaves and tropical cyclones, melting ice caps, rising sea levels, and disruptions to ecosystems and biodiversity. This year becoming the hottest on record underscores the urgency of climate change, amplifying these effects and threatening food and water security, human health, and economic stability.

Off Track

With the exception of July, the global average temperature exceeded 1.5C above pre-industrial levels every month since June 2023.

The critical 1.5C threshold was established at the 2015 COP21 climate summit, when 196 parties signed the legally binding Paris Agreement. They agreed to keep limiting global warming to below 1.5C or “well below 2C” above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Beyond this limit, experts warn that critical tipping points will be breached, leading to devastating and potentially irreversible consequences for several vital Earth systems that sustain a hospitable planet.

While the recent heat streak does not signal a permanent breach of the critical limit, which scientists say is measured over decades, it sends a clear warning to humanity that we are approaching the point of no return much faster than expected. So far, the world has warmed by 1.2C compared to pre-industrial times.

The burning of coal, natural gas, and oil for electricity and heat is the single-largest source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These are the primary drivers of global warming as they trap heat in the atmosphere and raising Earth’s surface temperature. Global fossil fuel consumption has more than doubled in the last 50 years, as countries around the world aim to improve their standards of living and economic output. In 2023, all three of the most potent GHGs – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide – reached record highs.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has urged countries to halt new gas and oil field projects, arguing that this is the only way to keep the 1.5C-compatible net-zero emissions scenario alive.

“The temperature-related extreme events witnessed this summer will only become more intense, with more devastating consequences for people and the planet unless we take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” said Burgess.