This year’s temperature is also on track to be more than 1.55C above pre-industrial levels, surpassing the critical warming limit set in the Paris Agreement.
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After the hottest summer on record, 2024 is now well on track to be the hottest year ever and the first year with annual temperatures surpassing the critical 1.5C warming threshold.
New data published by the EU earth observation agency Copernicus on Thursday shows that October was yet another abnormally warm month worldwide, the second-hottest on record and the 15th in a 16-month period for which the global-average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
Temperatures globally rose last year in response El Niño, a weather pattern associated with the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. While scientists initially predicted a cooling trend with the arrival of the La Niña phenomenon across the Pacific around August, warming persisted for several more months. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration now says there is a 75% probability of La Niña occurring between November and January.
For 2024 not to beat the record-breaking temperature of 2023, the average temperature anomaly for the rest of the year “would have to drop to almost zero to not be the warmest year,” Copernicus concluded.
The 1.5C threshold was established at the 2015 COP21 climate summit, when 196 parties signed the legally binding Paris Agreement. They agreed to keep limiting global warming to below 1.5C or “well below 2C” above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Beyond this limit, experts warn that critical tipping points will be breached, leading to devastating and potentially irreversible consequences for several vital Earth systems that sustain a hospitable planet.
“After 10 months of 2024 it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels according to the ERA5 dataset,” said Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Burgess called on countries gathering in Baku, Azerbaijan, next week for the UN climate summit COP29 to “raise ambition” in light of the “new milestone in global temperature records.”
A UN report published ahead of the major summit indicated that current pledges put the world on track for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1C over the course of this century. It further warned that cuts of 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 are needed to get on track for 1.5C of warming.
Greenhouse Gases on the Rise
The burning of coal, natural gas, and oil for electricity and heat is the single-largest source of global greenhouse gas emissions. These are the primary drivers of global warming as they trap heat in the atmosphere, raising Earth’s surface temperature. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has urged countries to halt new gas and oil field projects, arguing that this is the only way to keep the 1.5C-compatible net-zero emissions scenario alive.
Global fossil fuel consumption has more than doubled in the last 50 years, as countries around the world aim to improve their standards of living and economic output.
In 2023, atmospheric concentrations of all three of the most potent greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide – reached record highs. Because of their extremely long durability in the atmosphere, the world is now “committed to rising temperatures for many, many years to come,” said Ko Barret, Deputy Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization.
‘More Frequent and Severe’
Rising atmospheric and ocean temperatures are directly linked to more frequent and more severe extreme weather events, including hurricanes, floods, heatwaves, and droughts as well as sea level rise and coastal erosion resulting from warming oceans, glacial melting, and loss of ice sheets.
Some of the most recent extreme weather events recorded around the world have been attributed to human-made climate change, from the powerful hurricanes Helene and Milton in the US to the deadly floods in Spain’s Valencia region.
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Check out some of our recent stories on how climate change is influencing extreme weather events:
- Drought Conditions Affecting All US States Except Alaska and Kentucky, Greatest Number on Record
- Snowless Mount Fuji Emerges as a Stark Symbol of Climate Change After Japan’s Hottest Summer
- ‘Heaviest Rain Ever’ That Triggered Deadly Floods in Central Europe Made Twice As Likely By Climate Change, Study Finds
- Climate Change and Rapid Urbanization Key Drivers of Deadly Nepal Floods, Analysis Shows
- Hurricane Helene’s Deadly Rainfall and Wind Increased by Human-Made Climate Change, Study Reveals
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