In the aftermath of the COP29 summit, during which Saudi Arabia refused any language about divesting from fossil fuels, the world is calling on the nation to adjust its approach to climate change. As the climate crisis continues, how can the Middle Eastern country transition from a natural resource that has given it power and security to a greener, more sustainable future? 

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The Middle East is projected to be one of the world’s regions most adversely affected by climate change, yet it remains resolutely opposed to policies that may impact their economic security – a trade-off that is difficult to understand in a region marked by instability. 

Saudi Arabia is one of the most powerful and influential countries in the world due to its vast oil reserves. As it fights to keep power in a shifting world, the nation’s refusal to allow the thought of fossil fuel reduction to enter global environmental talks is negligent wielding of its power and detrimental both to its citizens and the rest of the Middle East, whom the nation often represents in exclusive groups such as the G20. 

Examining the history of the country, the perceived importance of fossil fuels to economic development, and the effects climate change is having and will continue to have on the Saudi Arabian people clearly shows a stubborn fixation on tradition and unwillingness to progress. 

Saudi Arabia has this opportunity to position itself as a leader in solutions to climate change, but it will miss out if it continues to hold fast to the resources of the past.

Saudi Arabian Dependency on Fossil Fuels

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the largest country in the Middle East by area. It is home to a wide variety of ecosystems, including forested mountains, sprawling deserts, and marine ecosystems. Its most important economic resource: petroleum. Saudi Arabia is home to about 17% of the world’s oil reserves and with current fossil fuel dependency, the nation is a global power. 

Discovered in 1938 in Dammam by an American oil well, the resource quickly became the catalyst for a shift in the Saudi economy. What had been an isolated country dependent on tourist revenue from the Hajj, the annual Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca, was increasingly enmeshed in foreign relationships. 

The Saudi economy has been dependent on these foreign relationships, with a large part of its revenue coming from rent paid by foreign countries for the right to drill for oil in the country. This wealth has been shared amongst Saudi Arabians, who enjoy tax-free personal income. 

Now, even as global oil demand changes and climate change mitigation relies on reduction of fossil fuel dependency, the nation remains resistant to changes in its economic dependency on petroleum.

Climate Change Impacts on Saudi Arabia

Despite its size and diverse landscape, Saudi Arabia faces severe repercussions from climate change, with experts predicting the country will warm by 4C in the next century. 

The kingdom has publicly acknowledged the climate risks it faces, including desertification and pollution from greenhouse gases and plastic.The nation lacks freshwater resources and relies on groundwater and desalination for freshwater. Desalination, or the removal of sodium from seawater, is an expensive process that often relies on fossil fuel energy. 

In spite of all this, Saudi Arabia has a unique potential to use its resources to fight climate change.

Renewable Energy Potential in Saudi Arabia

A region characterized by sunny days and barren deserts seems ideal for solar energy. 

According to a 2024 report released by Rystad Energy, the Middle East has great potential for solar power and, if it transitions away from fossil fuels, the availability of light and open land for solar panels could make the Middle East one of the greatest producers of solar energy.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman are leading the way in the region in developing solar projects, with its clean energy capacity expected to continue growing. Saudi Arabia is predicted to surpass the other countries in solar energy production thanks to projects such as the solar plant Al Henakiyah, which could become one of the world’s largest solar power plants.

Barren desert land can be a boon for wind power, and Saudi Arabian plans for the future intend to harness that as a leader in the wind energy sector. Currently, the country is home to the largest wind farm in the Middle East, with plans to continue epanding this sector. 

The need for desalination to provide freshwater is an energy-intensive process, but Saudi Arabia has integrated hydropower technology with desalination plants to harness the energy of the incoming seawater. Creative solutions such as this could be pivotal in the fight against climate change.

Infrastructure for developing countries is necessary, and the climate credits agreed upon in COP29 may not facilitate all of the infrastructure. Powerhouses in the Middle East like Saudi Arabia, which can export water or solar panel technology, may reduce air and water pollution that impacts not only the country itself but also neighbouring nations while supporting its economies.

Saudi Vision 2030

Saudi Arabia’s plan for economic change and growth was launched in 2016 as a way to propel the country through 2030. The plan is cited in many analyses of Saudi Arabian environmental policy, though the primary focus is economic prosperity and there is no specific environmental program. Mentions of environmental changes include mentions of climate change and investing in renewable energy, marking the increasing need to diversify the economy. 

Government oversight programs such as the Renewable Energy Project Development Office and the National Energy Efficiency Program are meant to help the country add renewables to the electrical grid and reduce electricity use, especially as population growth adds demand to the electrical system.

Despite the acknowledgement of climate change mitigation measures, the vision still includes projects to develop the oil and gas industry, while adding renewable energy sources to the mix. Notably, foreign relationships are mentioned as well, highlighting the importance of foreign ties and expatriate workers to the Saudi Arabian economy.

More on the topic: Saudi Vision 2030: What are Saudi Arabia’s Plans for the Future?

Environmental Policy

Saudi Arabia’s initiatives to diversify the economy away from the oil industry, in compliance with its Vision 2030 plan, include groundbreaking urban developments designed to attract tourism, tourist initiatives to increase hospitality in the Red Sea region, and a new urban area, NEOM, that will be 100% powered by renewable energy. 

Current environmental policy in Saudi Arabia is primarily centered on fostering a circular economy, emphasizing the concept of reusing and recycling resources rather than solely reducing the dependence on hydrocarbons like fossil fuels. This strategy aims to reintegrate resources back into the ecosystem, often through practices like planting trees and encouraging recycling. As president of the G20 in 2020, the nation emphasized this method of environmental protection as a primary solution to emissions. 

While this approach shows promise, particularly in regions with diverse landscapes such as mountainous areas, ambitious projects like the Green Riyadh Project face challenges. The initiative, dedicated to augmenting green spaces in the capital city for healthier living conditions and cleaner air, relies heavily on sophisticated and expensive irrigation systems, which pose financial barriers for many developing Middle Eastern nations.

Furthermore, the Saudi Arabia and Middle East Green Initiative espouses clean energy adoption and regional collaboration as pivotal tools in the fight against climate change. But despite its noble objectives, the initiative’s progress has been hindered by financial constraints, as evidenced by the lack of a summit since 2022.

Global Influence

As Saudi Arabia’s dependence on oil resources grew, so did its global power. With fossil fuels a clear contributor to climate change, the country’s resistance to the term during the COP29 summit is related to a culture steep in tradition, resistant to increases in taxes, and seeking economic development through a historically dependable resource. Denying the influence of this resource on a global catastrophe is harmful, not only to Saudi Arabia but also to the rest of the world. 

Saudi Arabia clearly has ideas to diversify its economy. Not only does it have beautiful, diverse landscapes and modern cities to appeal to tourists, the country is also uniquely suited to solar, wind, and hydropower. Instead of focusing on the ways fossil fuels may have contributed to developing economies (though that point is more complex than previously thought), influential countries like Saudi Arabia must look to the economic opportunities of the future.

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