Global carbon dioxide emissions from coal, oil, and natural gas are projected to reach 36.8 billion tonnes this year, a historic high despite a substantial decrease in the growth rate over the past decade, a new report has revealed.
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Global fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year are set to hit a record high of 36.8 billion tonnes, an increase of 1.1% relative to 2022 levels and 1.4% above pre-pandemic levels, preliminary data shows. Paired with emissions deriving from land-use change – such as deforestation – global CO2 emissions will likely reach 40.9 billion tonnes.
According to the Global Carbon Budget 2023, compiled by researchers from more than 90 institutions around the world and published Tuesday by the Global Carbon Project, emissions in 2023 are expected to rise in all fuel types despite declines across 26 countries, which together account for 28% of global emissions. In particular, coal emissions, which account for 41% of global emissions, are projected to rise 1.1%, owing partly to significant rises in countries like India and China and despite the US and the European Union slowly decreasing consumption. The same applies to oil, which represents 32% of global emissions and is projected to rise 1.5% this year. Finally, increases in natural gas emissions in the US, China and India are behind the estimated 0.5% rise in natural gas emissions globally.
Despite the world witnessing progress in recent years, from significant reductions in fossil CO2 emissions in many countries – including the US and Europe – to an overall reduction in their growth rate globally, Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study, argued that progress remains “painfully slow” and is currently not widespread enough to put the world on the right path to reach net zero emissions.
The paper also reinforces recent findings suggesting that, at current CO2 emissions levels, the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance to limit global warming to 1.5C could be exceeded in seven years. Carbon budget refers to the net amount of CO2 we have left to emit before we exceed our desired global temperature increases.
“The latest CO2 data shows that current efforts are not profound or widespread enough to put global emissions on a downward trajectory towards Net Zero, but some trends in emissions are beginning to budge, showing climate policies can be effective,” said Professor Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor at UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences.
“All countries need to decarbonise their economies faster than they are at present to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.”
The paper comes as climate talks intensify at the COP28 summit in Dubai. “It now looks inevitable we will overshoot the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement, and leaders meeting at COP28 will have to agree rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions even to keep the 2°C target alive,” said Friedlingstein.
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