April Heatwave in Asia Made More Likely and Extreme by Climate Change, Study Finds

Most parts of Asia saw record-breaking temperatures in April amid a series of severe heatwaves that claimed dozens of lives and led to crop failure, water shortages, and widespread school closures across the continent.

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A series of record-breaking heatwaves that hit most parts of the Asian continent in April, impacting millions of highly vulnerable people, was made more likely to occur and more extreme by human-made climate change, new research has shown.

A group of 13 scientists at World Weather Attribution (WWA) analyzed recent and historical weather data and climate models to compare how last month’s heatwaves have changed between today’s climate – which has warmed approximately 1.2C – and the cooler pre-industrial climate.

2023 was the hottest year on record, supercharged by the El Niño weather pattern, which pushed temperatures off the charts around the world. Despite it gradually weakening, global temperatures have continued to rise this year, with April becoming the latest and 11th consecutive month to break records.

In neighbouring India, temperatures last month reached as high as 46C. The eastern part of the country recorded a mean temperature for the month (28.2C), the highest since records began in 1901, making April the hottest on record in the region. Bengaluru, the capital and largest city of the southern state of Karnataka, broke heat records, registering “appreciably above normal” temperatures – meaning temperatures 3.1-5C above normal for this time of year – for at least 10 days and zero precipitation throughout the month, which exacerbated a dry spell that has been affecting the country since November 2023.

West Asia also experienced temperatures above 40C. In war-town Gaza, where some 1.7 million people have been displaced, extreme heat has significantly exacerbated the already precarious situation, worsening health conditions and claiming at least three lives, two of which were children. According to WWA, climate change made this kind of heat in the region – a one in ten-year event in the current climate – about five times more likely to occur and 1.7C hotter. In a 2C warming scenario, similar heatwaves will occur around once every five years and will be an extra 1C hotter, the study said.

In South and Southeast Asia, previous WWA had already shown a 10- to 30-fold increase in the likelihood of such a heat event due to climate change. Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam in Southeast Asia broke records for their hottest April temperature. In northern and northeastern Thailand, the mercury last month hit 44C . In the South, the average maximum temperature for the month reached 37.2C, the second-highest on record after 2016. The number of heat-related casualties nationwide has reached 30 so far this year, compared to the 37 heat-related deaths recorded in the country in 2023.

More on the topic: Extreme Heat, Heavy Rain Kill Hundreds Across Thailand, East Africa

In the Philippines, extreme heat led to the suspension of thousands of in-person classes, as residents said it was “so hot you can’t breathe.” The heat recorded in the archipelago was made about 1C hotter by climate change and a further 0.2C hotter by El Niño, according to the study. Without anthropogenic climate change, such a heatwave would have been “virtually impossible,” WWA said, adding that, were global heating to reach 2C above pre-industrial level, the Philippines would experience such an event every two to three years, down from once every ten years in the current climate.

Asia Hit Hardest By Climate Change

Last month, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said accelerating climate change in Asia is exacerbating the frequency and severity of extreme weather events that profoundly affect societies, economies, and human lives. The UN agency found that nearly half of all 984,263 climate and natural disaster-related deaths over the past five decades occurred in Asia, with tropical cyclones claiming the highest number of lives. In 2023 alone, Asia saw a total of 79 water hazard-related disasters, which resulted in more than 2,000 fatalities and directly affected 9 million people.

According to WWA, heat-related deaths are “notoriously underreported.”

“Heat-related impacts on health are not well-monitored or documented. This really hampers our
ability to understand the true impacts and full spectrum of risks associated with extreme heat,” said Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Climate Risk Consultant at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre and one of the researchers behind the WWA study.

“Heat action plans set out measures for dealing with heat, like changing work and school hours.
Although various countries have made substantial progress on such plans, there is an urgent need to
scale up and further strengthen them across Asia to deal with the rising heat,” she added.