Climate predictions for the 2024-2028 period also show that “at least” one year will be the warmest on record, beating 2023.
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Temperatures in May 2024 were the highest ever recorded for that month, marking one year of record-breaking temperatures.
According to the latest climate bulletin published Wednesday by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the global average surface air temperature last month stood at 0.65C above the 1991-2020 average. It was also 1.52C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average, marking the 11th consecutive month that temperatures breached the 1.5C global warming threshold set in the Paris Agreement.
While this does not signal a permanent breach of the critical limit, which scientists say is measured over decades, it sends a clear warning to humanity that we are approaching the point of no return much faster than expected.
So far, the world has warmed by 1.2C compared to pre-industrial times, though data by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that 20-40% of the global human population live in regions that, by the decade 2006–2015, had already experienced warming of more than 1.5C in at least one season. According to the UN body, every 0.5C (0.9F) of global warming will cause discernible increases in the frequency and severity of heat extremes, heavy rainfall events, and regional droughts.
CS3 Director Carlo Buontempo said the findings were “shocking but not surprising,” adding that while the trend will eventually be interrupted, the fact that the climate is changing is undeniable.
“We are living in unprecedented times, but we also have unprecedented skill in monitoring the climate and this can help inform our actions. This string of hottest months will be remembered as comparatively cold but if we manage to stabilise the concentrations of [greenhouse gases] in the atmosphere in the very near future we might be able to return to these “cold” temperatures by the end of the century,” said Buontempo.
The burning of coal, natural gas, and oil for electricity and heat is the single-largest source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These are the primary drivers of global warming as they trap heat in the atmosphere and raising Earth’s surface temperature. Global fossil fuel consumption has more than doubled in the last 50 years, as countries around the world aim to improve their standards of living and economic output. In 2023, all three of the most potent GHGs – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide – reached record highs.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has urged countries to halt new gas and oil field projects, arguing that this is the only way to keep the 1.5C-compatible net-zero emissions scenario alive.
“For the past year, every turn of the calendar has turned up the heat. Our planet is trying to tell us something. But we don’t seem to be listening. We’re shattering global temperature records and reaping the whirlwind. It’s climate crunch time. Now is the time to mobilise, act and deliver,” UN Secretary-General Guterres said in a speech at the American Museum of Natural History to mark World Environment Day.
On Wednesday, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK’s Meteorological Office (Met Office) also published a report summarizing predictions for the 2024-2028 period. They found, among other things, that “at least” one of the next five years will be the warmest on record. 2023 is currently the hottest year on record, supercharged by the El Niño weather pattern, which pushed temperatures off the charts worldwide.
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