Rising temperatures could pose “unprecedented challenges” to public health systems across Europe, especially during heatwaves, the authors said.
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Europe could see three times as many heat-related deaths by the end of the century unless ambitious adaptation measures are implemented continent-wide, according to a new study that looked at the risk patterns of climate change in some European regions.
Accounting for current climate policies in place, the world is on track to 3C of warming, the study said. Under this scenario, Europe could see an estimated 128,809 deaths by 2100 compared to about 44,000 in the period of 1991-2020. Under the Paris Agreement 1.5C and 2C warming targets, deaths from extreme heat would rise to approximately 58,000 and 76,000, respectively.
Based on these findings, the authors concluded that public health systems across Europe could face “unprecedented challenges,” especially during heatwaves.
Published Wednesday in The Lancet Public Health, the study identified significant regional disparities in temperature-related mortality rates. Eastern Europe, for example, sees about 2.5 times the number of cold-related deaths than western Europe. Cold still kills more people than heat in Europe, the authors said, though the ratio is expected to flip as the planet heats up. Meanwhile, southern European countries are much more vulnerable to heatwaves and thus account for the largest share of heat-related deaths.
Among the 30 countries modelled, Italy is the country where most heat-related deaths occurred in the period of 1991-2020 – a staggering 10,433. Under a 3C scenario, the number will more than double to reach about 28,285 in 2100. Germany ranked second with 6,909 deaths between 1991-2020 and an estimated 16,913 by century’s end, closely followed by Spain with 4,414 and 20,194 fatalities, respectively.
Austria, France, and Greece will likely see the number of heat-related casualties more than triple, while Ireland might see an 18-fold increase between now and 2100, according to the study.
Every year between 2000-2019, approximately 489,000 people died from extreme heat around the world. 45% of these casualties happened in Asia, the world’s most disaster-hit region from weather and climate hazards; 36% were in Europe, the world’s fastest-warming continent. Here, heat-related mortality has already increased by around 30% in the past two decades, coinciding with a rise in the average temperature.
Besides regional differences, the authors warn that demographic changes will also determine which countries will suffer the most. Despite not taking these into considerations, the study also highlighted that factors such as ethnicity, gender, and age can affect a person’s vulnerability to heat.
More on the topic: Silent Killer: Understanding the Risks of Extreme Heat
Urban populations are more vulnerable compared to those living in rural areas, the study said. “The presence of the urban heat island effect in cities, more evident during the night, can exacerbate the impacts of heat on health,” it read.
Scientists have discovered that, compared to rural environments, the modified land surface (such as dark pavement and roofing) in the urban areas affects the storage and transfer of both radiative and turbulent heat. This phenomenon is known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect.
Aside from the negative effect on quality of life and general activity levels in a city, excessive heat can put younger and older people at risks of dehydration, heat stroke and heat-related mortality. Urban heat islands also increase the demand for electrical energy in summer for air conditioning, increasing sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, particulate matter and CO2 emissions.
Many cities have implemented strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change. These strategies aim at cooling the environment by changing how we plan and design the built environment, incorporating vegetation, and reducing waste of heat. Examples include planting trees and increasing green cover, installing green or cool roofs, and replacing regular pavement with cool pavement.
Many have also started to adapt to a warmer world by implementing strategies focussing on protecting people from heat that cannot be mitigated, from establishing dedicated cooling centres to introducing heat risk standards to protect outdoor workers.
“The marked increase in heat-related deaths highlights the cost of delaying climate action,” the authors said, adding that planning and building standards are “adaptation policy levers.”
“Additional efforts should be focused on regions with high unemployment, poverty, structural economic changes, emigration, and ageing populations,” which are “hotspots for heat-related deaths,” they said.
More on the topic: What Do Heatwaves Tell Us About Climate Change?
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