India General Election: Is a Climate Agenda on the Cards? 

Between April and June 2024, nearly one billion people will be eligible to vote in the world’s largest democratic exercise. India’s general election unfolds against a backdrop of extreme drought, melting glaciers, forest fires, deadly floods, and prolonged heatwaves. Since voting began, parts of the country have been battling with scorching heat. But while hot weather is the norm for the 1.4 billion people living in India, the intensity and frequency of heatwaves are on the rise, partly fuelled by climate change. This begs the question: Is climate change on Indian voters’ radar?

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India’s Climate Manifesto

Climate change appeared in the election manifestos of major national parties for the first time in 2019. In the 2024 election manifesto, both India’s ruling party – the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – and the opposition Congress Party have included several pledges across different sectors that could be filed under green policies, renewable energy targets, and pollution-free mandates. However, the word “climate” is hardly mentioned in either manifesto. 

As per its manifesto, the BJP – the party of India’s current Prime minister Narendra Modi – is striving to achieve energy independence by 2047; meet the 500GW target for renewable energy by 2030; and establish India as a global manufacturing hub for wind, solar, and green hydrogen technologies. The party’s strategy to achieve these ambitious targets includes reducing petroleum imports, focusing on electric mobility, expanding charging stations, increasing renewable energy production, and enhancing energy efficiency. The party also announced it will launch a National Atmospheric Mission to make India “weather-ready” and “climate-smart.”

According to its manifesto, on the other hand, the Congress Party plans to set up two specialized funds: a green transition fund to finance the clean energy transition and a Green New Deal investment programme that focuses on renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure, and the creation of green jobs. The party also promises to bring on an “independent” Environment Protection and Climate Change Authority to monitor and enforce environmental standards at the national and state level. Transitioning from the National Action Plan on Climate Change to a National Climate Resilience Development Mission, the party says, will help integrate climate-positive actions in all sectors of development.

India’s leadership at the G20 and prominence in international forums such as the UN Conference of the Parties (COP) influence the domestic political narrative and national policies towards India’s own climate goals. However, even though both parties have included climate issues in their Manifestos, they both failed to promote their climate pledges as a central issue in the stump speeches and rallies throughout the campaign season.

Climate Change in India

For years, India has been battling with the devastating consequences of anthropogenic climate change and currently ranks ninth out of the world’s top-50 states most at risk from climate change hazards.

According to the National Centre for Science and Environment’s 2023 climate breakdown, India had its warmest-ever August and September in 122 years. The country also suffered an extreme weather event on 318 days last year, which claimed a total of 3,287 lives, affected 2.21 million hectares of crop area, damaged 86,432 houses, and killed nearly 125,000 animals. All 36 states and Union territories were affected, with Himachal Pradesh recording the highest number of extreme weather events (149), followed by Madhya Pradesh (141). Kerala and Uttar Pradesh were next with 119 days each. 

The country also saw 208 of floods and landslides triggered by heavy rains and heatwaves lasting for a total of 49 days. Eastern parts of the country were also battered by Cyclone Michaung in December, which killed at least nine and submerged parts of Chennai.

More on the topic: 5 Biggest Environmental Issues in India in 2024

Another study published last year also pointed out that extreme weather events have led to precarious and informal work conditions, domestic violence, child marriages, and further inequality in low-income groups. In Ahmedabad, a city in western India, people living in slums and informal housing face greater exposure to extreme temperatures, inequalities, and an increase in several heat-related deaths. Bangalore, India’s Silicon Valley, is battling with widespread water shortages, after receiving little rainfall the past year due to climate change and rampant urbanization.

In 2021, the country was also among the world’s most polluted in the world, with an annual average PM2.5 level of about 58.1 µg/m³.

What Are Indian Voters’ Priorities?

After China and the US, India is the world’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gasses and the fastest-growing major economy. Unlike its Western counterparts, where elections can be significantly influenced by candidates’ climate agendas, the climate is not featured as a major issue in India’s election.

In a Lokniti-CSDS pre-poll survey conducted in 2023, voters indicated unemployment and inflation as the most important issues. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, the unemployment rate and inflation in March stood at 7.6% and 4.77%.

It is true, however, that urban voters are becoming more sensitive to climate change mitigation efforts and sustainable development promises as life as they know it has become heavily intertwined with environmental issues such as extreme rain, heat, and pollution due to inadequate waste management and traffic. The same goes for younger generations. This year, 18 million young Indians will be voting for the first time. For them, climate change is the third-most important societal issue, according to a 2023 Gen Z and Millennial Survey published by Deloitte.

Researchers also argue that many of the issues identified as pressing by Indian voters, such as unemployment, education, healthcare, economic growth, and caste inequality, are all linked to the climate crisis. Previous studies, for example, have shown that India’s frequent heatwaves are a growing burden on its economy and public health resources. It is estimated that 8% of India’s GDP was lost due to the climate crisis in 2022. In that same year, research showed that heatwaves made nearly 90% of Indians “more vulnerable to public health issues, food shortages and increased risks of death.”

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Awareness and understanding of the climate crisis also depend on where people live. For example, people living in coastal areas such as Kerala, which is subject to frequent excessive rainfall, floods, and landslides, express a greater degree of concern. 

“My wants are simple, I want soft clean water, cheap electricity, and affordable healthcare,” Khairu Nisa, a single mother and tailor living in a small settlement in the southern Indian state of Tamilnadu, told Earth.Org. Her home was flooded and damaged in the Michang Cyclone last December. In the summer months, she complains of the unbearable heat in her home every year. “Fan is not enough, I cannot afford an AC. It is very difficult to work and make a living in this difficult weather,” she said.

Extreme weather events have also been shown to affect political outcomes.

A 2022 study on political participation in India found evidence that “areas with greater cumulative exposure to extreme temperatures experience an increase in voter turnout and a change in the composition of the pool of candidates who stand for election.” 

In particular, the study has found that the negative effect of climate change on agricultural productivity can affect voter turnout, particularly in rural areas, and increase the chances that winning candidates have an agricultural background and invest more in mitigation measures aimed at protecting the agricultural sector. 

All Eyes on India

The outcome of India’s election holds immense significance not only for its own citizens but also for the global community. As the world’s largest democracy, all eyes are fixed upon this nation to witness how its new leader will confront the pressing challenges posed by the rapidly deteriorating climate crisis. With environmental concerns reaching critical levels, the decisions made by India’s elected officials will have far-reaching implications, not just within its borders but also for the future of our planet.