Historic Global Growth of Renewables Set to Outpace Countries’ 2030 Targets But Fall Short of COP28 Tripling Goal, IEA Says

China is set to maintain its position as the global leader in renewable expansion, while the European Union, the US and India will more than double their renewable capacity in the next seven years.

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The world is set to add an unprecedented amount of renewable capacity between now and 2030, outperforming governments’ own national targets but falling short of a tripling target set at last year’s UN climate summit.

Over 5,500 gigawatts of new renewable capacity will be added globally in the next five years, the equivalent of the current total power capacity of China, the European Union, India, and the US combined, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday. According to energy think tank Ember, renewable energy currently accounts for little over 30% of global electricity.

Growing demand from the private sector and households, boosted by “supportive” energy security and industrial policies in almost 140 countries, has played a “crucial” role in making renewables cost-competitive with fossil-fired power plants, according to the report. These policies have contributed to declining costs, shorter permitting timelines and widespread social acceptance.

In January, the IEA said that an unprecedented expansion of renewable electricity was “giving [the world] a real chance of achieving the goal of tripling global capacity by 2030” set by nearly 200 countries at COP28 last year of tripling global renewable energy capacity by the decade’s end.

The new estimate revealed Wednesday still falls short of the goal, albeit not by a large amount, though the agency added that “fully meeting the tripling target is entirely possible if governments take near-term opportunities for action.” These include bolstering international cooperation to bring down financing costs in emerging and developing economies as well as including bolder energy policies in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – national plans for emissions reduction that each signatory to the Paris Agreement is required to set up and update every five years. The next round of NDCs is due next year.

Solar and wind energy will account for about 95% of the estimated growth until 2030, owing for the most part to China’s staggering renewable expansion. The nation, already the world’s indisputable leader in clean energy growth, will contribute a staggering 60% of the total global expansion.

Since ending more than a decade of feed-in tariffs for new solar and onshore wind projects in 2021, China’s solar capacity quadrupled and its wind doubled. The success, the IEA said, stems from its “comprehensive support” for both large-scale and Distributed Renewable Energy (DRE) – electricity generated from renewable energy sources near the point of use, rather than from centralized power plants – “across all renewable technologies.”

While China is adding the largest volume, India’s renewable capacity is growing at the fastest rate among major economies, the report revealed. The country is expected to add 349.8 gigawatts of renewable capacity in the next seven years, more than three times the amount it added between 2017 and 2023. The European Union and the US are together expected to contribute just little over 1,000 gigawatts, more than double what they contributed in the last seven-year period.

Despite increased policy support, hydrogen’s contribution to global renewable expansion remains “negligible,” the IEA said.

Energy Transition

At COP28, world leaders also made an unprecedented pledge to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner to achieve net-zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”

The burning of coal, natural gas, and oil for electricity and heat is the single-largest source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the primary drivers of global warming by trapping heat in the atmosphere and raising Earth’s surface temperature. Global fossil fuel consumption has more than doubled in the last 50 years, as countries around the world aim to improve their standards of living and economic output. In 2023, all three of the most potent GHGs – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide – reached record highs.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has urged countries to halt new gas and oil field projects, arguing that this is the only way to keep the 1.5C-compatible net-zero emissions scenario alive.

Featured image: Joan Sullivan / Climate Visuals Countdown.

More on the topic: The Present and Future of Renewable Energy